Leaked Documents From the Pentagon Shows Ukraine Isn’t Winning the War

Another blow to the US’s moral authority

Photo by Martina Mainetti on Unsplash

In early April 2023, highly classified documents were leaked, something the Pentagon referred to as a threat to national security. Close to 100 documents were leaked, with speculations that more could still be at large. The leak currently ranks high on the list of other revelations regarding all the shady activities deployed by the US government, a list which includes the likes of Edward Snowden's exposè on the CIA's surveillance activities, as well as WikiLeaks.

The leak involves the degree to which the US is involved in the war in Ukraine, the true number of casualties on both sides as estimated by US intelligence gathering, and just how fast Ukraine is losing control over its air space. One of the things that shocked me the most is the terrible disparity between those figures and the ones pushed out by the mainstream media.

While the Pentagon has come out to fully condemn this act of treason as well as promise to punish the perpetrator to the fullest extent of the law, it's interesting to know that neither they nor anyone else concerned with this has disputed the veracity of the revelations from the documents.

This is most probably because a lot of the claims can be verified in real-time and the fact that at this point, the integrity of the United States government is at an all-time low. It doesn't matter where you belong on the political spectrum, if you have a functional and functioning brain, you will have to treat anything that comes out of their mouth with nothing short of skepticism.

Although I was able to get my hands on the snapshots of the documents, a lot more had already been taken down before I could get to them. I'd like to state that I actually do have the pictures of the documents where I'm stating all these from, and you'll find them on my Tumblr because I don't want to make this article messy with pictures.

Now I'm going to focus mainly on the war in Ukraine because, of course, it's what most people are concerned about, and while it looks embarrassing for Russia, it's also not looking good for Ukraine either, and anything you see from the mainstream media after this, portraying Ukraine as a stone-throw away from liberation should at least be treated with caution.

Ukrainian forces are experiencing weaknesses in their defense capabilities

NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg had warned some time ago that the Ukrainian forces are using up ammunition much faster than the benefactors are producing it. This statement has also been reported by the Washington Post so is pretty much out there. However, what isn’t out there is the degree to which the ammunition is, or rather, has been used up. Fortunately, this is where those leaked documents come in.

Now according to the documents, about 90% of the air defense systems the Ukrainians are using to keep Russia from gaining control over their air space are outdated Soviet S 300 defense systems that aren't being manufactured anymore, so once they're exhausted, they're exhausted. The first set of these weapons, according to the documents, was projected to be fully depleted by March 31, and the other by May 3rd.

It stated further that air defense systems like surface-to-air interceptors (SA-3, SA-12, NASAM, etc) have a limited quantity of systems, which means only select assets can be covered. They are unable to match the Russian volume. There’s also very limited or even no air-to-air Ukrainian defense.

In the document, there was a section labeled "risks", and in there, they talked about the decreased Ukrainian capabilities and the increased Russian capabilities.

These include the general inability to prevent Russian air superiority, and the rapid consumption rate of surface-to-air missiles like SA-10 and SA-11. Some other vulnerabilities stated includes the inability to strike, support and resupply via fixed and rotary wing (ie UAS, ER, JDAM, etc), lessened ability to mount ground forces on the forward line of troops (FLOT) as well as a counter-offensive.

On the other hand, some of the increased Russian capabilities include:

General, or at least, relative air superiority: There were reported to possess superior air-to-air defenses and bomber freedom for aerial maneuver.

Ground attack capabilities against the Ukrainian FLOT and counteroffensive operations (ie localized air superiority, CAS, ISR, etc).

Gained the ability to attack and resupply via fixed and rotary wings (airborne assault, airborne operations, aerial resupply, ISR, UAS).

Improved accuracy, range, and survivability of long-range munitions as they’re no longer required to fly through terrain contouring paths.

One of the biggest issues with the Russians establishing air superiority is that they can easily attack Ukrainian infrastructure, damage logistics chain, which would heavily destabilize troops and even affect civilians.

While I was reading this, it occurred to me that the Ukrainians didn’t share this, and I’m very sure they don’t know the US had this information, which means the US has been and probably still is spying on them, despite the warm relationship they’re portrayed to have. This isn’t looking good for the US.

Several news outlets had stated that the Ukrainians could be gradually running out of ammo, in the most optimistic tune they can manage to muster. Although it's now been proven to be a huge understatement, at least it's better than the ones who claimed that Putin soiled himself and fell down the stairs and that the Russians were running out of ammo so bad that they are fighting with shovels.

Did my tone just sound a bit condescending? Good, maybe it's because I was trying to be condescending to the lamestream media for playing us for fools and feeding us false hopes and prospects that are, at best, pie in the sky.

I wanted to believe that maybe this could be a purposeful leak to show just how bad the situation in Ukraine is so the public could be motivated to support more funding.

I mean, the Ukrainians could have just come out to explain how much shit they're in but there are people who are already very skeptical of anything Zelensky says so it might not have changed anything. This is why they made it in the form of a leak because it would have looked more trustworthy that way, it would have looked like something they didn't want the public to know but they ended up knowing.

However, that argument would have held water had it been the vulnerabilities of the Ukrainian forces were carefully curated and leaked, solely. Unfortunately, there were also parts that put America in a very bad light, I mean, the US is now revealed to be spying on its allies. This is bad.

The disparity in casualties

Another measure of success in conventional warfare is the level of casualties inflicted on both sides. It's quite straightforward, the part with the most number of dead guys is the losing side. Occasionally, the mainstream media will put out ludicrous casualty figures like this one from the NY Times.

"The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials."

They went on to state that the figures could be much higher because Moscow wouldn't disclose the actual figures, which is true because the war right now is so disorganized that I'm not even sure the Kremlin knows exactly how many of its troops have perished on the battlefield.

Ukraine on the other hand was estimated to have lost about 100 to 120,000 troops. I believe the casualties on the Ukrainian side will be much lower because people who are defending in conventional warfare tend to have fewer casualties due to some factors which include terrain familiarity and troop morale.

However, according to the document, the Russians have lost between 35 to 43,000 troops, as opposed to the Ukrainians losing 16 to 17,000 troops. Those were the ones killed in action.

With regards to Russia, according to the document, the number of soldiers wounded in the war was estimated to be between 154 to 180k, giving a casualty total of 190 to 223k. On the other hand, the number of Ukrainian forces wounded in combat was estimated to be between 109 to 113k, giving a casualty total of 125 to 131k.

So the Russians were revealed to have lost much fewer troops than portrayed. It's not exactly good news for them because there is still some very unflattering information about the Russians in the document.

Let’s not forget that Russian propagandists once shamelessly edited those figures to heavily deflate Russian casualties and inflate Ukrainian casualties, which they managed to distribute to different social media outlets. The perfect case, and probably one of the few cases where the mainstream media can use the word "Russian misinformation" and they’d be right.

I did a quick math using the total upper casualty figures against their total active military personnel (gotten from a quick Google search so you'd have to doubt the veracity of those figures too) and with regards to the Russians who have 830k active military personnel, their troops will be suffering a 27% casualty, as opposed to the Ukrainian troops with 700k active troops suffering 19%. Not very flattering.

Now back to the documents: As stated, Russia continues to fall behind stated goals for the replenishment of equipment and personnel to support operations in Ukraine. They’ve incorporated the use of less accurate, older ammunition systems to compensate for the depletion of their modern ones.

The Ukrainians on the other hand have sustained defensive and support operations with available inventory for over 6 months despite losses in the air and air defense domains. They've also been successful in integrating some Western systems in some aspects.

Another reason the Ukrainians are not having it easy in the war with regard to air power is in the combat sustainability figures released in the document. While the Ukrainians were doing considerably better on the ground with a sustainability rate of 83% as opposed to the Russians with 62%, they lagged behind in Air warfare with 68% as opposed to Russia's 92%.

Also, the Russian Air defenses had a sustainability of 97% as opposed to Ukraine’s 73%. This means Ukraine has been taking heavy fire from above and while their air defenses are fast wearing out, the Russians remain almost untouched. A testament to just how far behind the Ukrainians are in the air.

You might argue that most of what I’ve said revolves around only air superiority and that the Ukrainians are pretty much dominating in almost all other aspects. You’ll say that if you were completely ignorant about just how essential air superiority is on the battlefield. It’s, in every sense of the word, a game-changer.

Importance of air superiority

Air superiority is extremely important in conventional warfare as it allows the controlling side to gain a significant advantage over the enemy. Air superiority refers to a situation where one side has complete control of the airspace, meaning that the opposing side cannot operate aircraft or other aerial vehicles without being detected and potentially shot down.

The benefits of air superiority are numerous. Firstly, it allows the controlling side to conduct reconnaissance and surveillance missions over the enemy territory without being detected, giving them a clear picture of the enemy's positions, movements, and capabilities.

Secondly, it enables the controlling side to conduct air strikes against enemy targets, such as military installations, troop concentrations, and supply lines, with minimal risk to their own aircraft. Thirdly, it denies the enemy the ability to conduct similar operations, effectively neutralizing their air power and limiting their ability to conduct offensive operations.

In summary, air superiority provides a significant advantage in conventional warfare by enabling the controlling side to gain a clear understanding of the enemy's capabilities and intentions, strike at their vulnerabilities, and limit their ability to conduct offensive operations. Therefore, it is an essential component of any modern military strategy.

In other words, you've won the most part of the battle if you dominate the skies.

Let's get back to the casualty figures

I was celebrating the fact that the Ukrainians had fewer casualties until it hit me, Russians have the ability to replace their troops much faster than the Ukrainians by virtue of being much more populated. This is why there are reports of older people having to enlist in the army, and even children helping out. I’m talking about Ukraine. You probably thought that never happens with Ukraine too because you’ve been force-fed lies about the war by the mainstream media.

This part is also very important because despite the Ukrainians apparently being more trained than the Russians, number is a very important factor because eventually, they will succumb, and if they can't be replenished fast enough, it's going to be a disaster. Numbers matter a lot, I mean, 10 well-trained MMA fighters will not be able to withstand 100 street urchins.

There seems to be a possible faction existing in the Ukrainian camps

The document reports that elements of Ukrainian intelligence were fully involved in the bombing of a Russian plane near Belarus. It also stated that the Ukrainian intelligence services ignored internal instructions and went ahead with the act. Belarus and Russia pointed fingers at Ukraine, and surprisingly enough, they didn’t even deny it.

Could there be some rogue elements in the system acting autonomously, bearing their own agenda? If yes, who knows how many more international issues they might end up dragging Ukraine into, I mean, some people are pointing fingers at Ukraine for being involved in the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, something classified as an international act of terrorism.

Look, we’re currently in the "who was the US’s accomplice in the Nord steam pipeline explosion" phase. If you still believe the horse shit that Russia blew up its own pipeline, its own source of revenue, and one of its only few bargaining chips, even though they can just turn off a switch if they didn’t want their gas to go to other parts of Europe. If you still believe Russia engaged in such a tactless act of self-sabotage, then you probably shouldn’t be reading this.

It’s worthy of note that in the documents were also classified intelligence reports from Poland, Ukraine, Israel, Russia, etc. Indicative of possible state-sponsored intercontinental espionage, but that’s a story for another day.

Conclusion

If you’re going to round this off as BS, to that I say "more power to you." If you want to call me a Russian propaganda bot, to that I say "bee-boop." But you should observe the fact that the Pentagon has been restless ever since, the way they’ve been trying to clean this off the internet, and the fact that the perpetrator might face 15yrs in prison for this shows you just how pissed they are.

This reveal crumbles every narrative they've been meticulously trying to build for more than a year, you weren't supposed to see this. The US government is known to tell blatant lies to its citizens, but if there's one place they'd most likely be honest and open, it's in an internal document between themselves.

What I've learned and what I advise you to do is spend more time and probably invest more money in independent journalists. I was able to get more information about this issue by watching smaller independent journalists. While the left and right were putting their own subtle spin on the issue, I was able to get more objective accounts from independent journalists.

The mainstream media is beyond corrupt, and I'll advise you to go independent.